Warning: bigger carbon cut needed to avoid disaster:

Leading researchers say government has misled public and call for 90% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2050 John Vidal, environment editorFriday September 15, 2006The Guardian
Drastic action is needed if Britain is to have any chance of avoiding catastrophic climate change, a ground-breaking environmental report warns today.
In the first big study of what households, business and government may have to do to cut carbon emissions, the leading climate change research body has revised upwards by 50% the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions that need to be achieved by 2050.
The government-funded Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research says this is necessary because successive governments have failed to include aviation or shipping emissions in their calculations.


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At the moment, the government's estimate is that a 60% cut in emissions is needed to avoid a 2C increase in temperatures by 2050. But the authors of today's study conclude that a 90% cut in emissions is needed. Their data suggests that when aviation and shipping is factored in, UK carbon emissions have not fallen at all since 1990.
In a scathing report commissioned by Friends of the Earth and the Cooperative Bank, the Tyndall Centre academics lambast successive governments for misleading the public on what has been achieved and what needs to be done.
"The government's carbon reduction policies continue to be informed by a partial inventory which omits the two important and rapidly growing sectors of air transport and shipping ... There is a clear void between the scale of the problem and the actual policy mechanisms proposed," the report says.
It proposes radical ideas to effect change, predicting that most buildings will have to generate their own electricity, double-decker trains will transport people to work, and planes might not be allowed to take off unless they are nearly full.
But the report says that 90% cuts are achievable if measures are taken within four years to stabilise emissions. Beyond 2010, it says, annual cuts of 9% will be needed for the next 20 years.
If the measures are not introduced urgently, say the authors, much more drastic and much less manageable cuts will be needed later.
The authors say that little new technology or investment in infrastructure will be needed to reduce emissions, apart from the development of hydrogen as a fuel, and carbon capture as a way to store carbon dioxide.
Instead they say that the government can encourage all sectors of society to become far more energy efficient, generating their own power and saving energy at all points.
However, they propose that Britain become the first country in the world to introduce a wide-ranging carbon tax or an emissions trading scheme. They envisage that everyone would be able to trade emissions, with those who do not use much energy able to sell their quotas to those who use a lot. They also propose that aviation, the fastest growing emitter of carbon dioxide, be given a stringent cap on its emissions.
"The UK has reached a tipping point. If the government's carbon dioxide targets are actually to have meaning the government must act now to curb dramatically the nation's carbon dioxide emissions," says the report.
"The message is stark. We are deluding ourselves [if we] wait for technology or emission trading to offer a smooth transition to a low carbon future. The real challenge is making a radical shift within four years and driving down carbon intensity at an unprecedented 9% a year for up to 20 years."
Tony Juniper, executive director of Friends of the Earth, said: "To turn this road map into reality we need a law that commits this and future governments to making annual cuts in the UK's carbon emissions. Without legislation to force government to reduce emissions annually, politicians will continue to place short-term gains ahead of the long-term decisions needed to get to grips with climate change."
Dr Kevin Anderson, research director of the Tyndall Centre's energy and climate change programme, said: "Our research demonstrates that the UK can move to a low carbon economy. But the journey will become much more demanding the longer the government leaves it to act."
He added: "To make a smooth transition to a low carbon future the individuals need immediately to begin to implement a major action programme."
Railways
By 2030, railways could be entering their greatest era. Trains are expected to remain the most carbon efficient mode of transport after cycling and walking, and the authors expect the British network to grow by 25% in 25 years as people forsake short haul flights for a new generation of high-speed trains linking national and European urban centres.
By 2030, the authors say, double-decker trains could be introduced to increase capacity. Not only will passenger numbers grow, but operators will be encouraged to run longer and fuller trains on more energy efficient fuels. Rail freight will increase, but will be curtailed because the existing lines will be used more for passenger traffic. Track improvements will also be needed to reduce emissions.
Industry
If Britain is to meet a 90% cut in emissions, the government must slow energy consumption and shift the economy towards renewables. The biggest emission savings, say the authors, will come from capturing and storing carbon emissions from coal and gas, and the generation of wave, wind and tidal energy. By 2030, the authors expect wood and fuel crops to be heating public buildings and housing estates, and up to 36% of all electricity to come from renewables, compared with less than 5% today and 10% in 2010. A further 15% will come from "on site" micro-generation by buildings and appliances.
A big change in industrial processes and technologies will be needed, and reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions will become essential in industrial design. Energy demand from appliances may overall stay the same but the emissions from air conditioning, refrigerators, computers and mobile phones can be greatly decreased.
By 2050, industry will be located in hubs, so the waste heat from one manufacturing process is used by another. It will be far less carbon intensive when it uses hydrogen instead of gas and starts generating its own renewable electricity. By 2050, hydrogen fuel made from both fossil fuels and renewables will be used widely by industry for transport and heating. Hydrogen fuel will also be produced at filling stations by a process called renewable electrolysis, with huge arrays of solar panels placed on embankments.
Roads
Cars and cities will have to transform themselves by 2030 if the UK is to meet its carbon reduction targets. The biggest emission savings will come from the shift from oil to alternative fuels, and as cities effectively ban private transport from their centres. By 2030 the Tyndall report says there may be 13% fewer cars on the roads a wider choice of fuels including electricity, hydrogen, and biofuels.
A network of "multi-fuel" filling stations will be needed. Cars will generally be lighter and more efficient. In the short and medium term, say the authors, the government could increase road tax on inefficient vehicles, decrease the speed limit on motorways to 60mph, set minimum emission standards for company car fleets and encourage public transport.
By 2050, the authors say most cars will be run on fuel cells or by electricity and emissions could have reduced to practically nothing.
Buildings
Anticipating population growth, and a shift of people to the south, the authors expect roughly 2m new buildings in the next 45 years, but say that if high construction standards are introduced they need add little or nothing to overall CO2 emissions. But they consider some existing houses to be so energy inefficient that they may have to be demolished.
By 2030, the majority of homes would have highly efficient insulation and roofs, and would have begun to generate their own electricity from wind turbines and solar panels. In addition, the government could ban the sale of inefficient incandescent light bulbs in favour of LEDs. The authors suggest that by 2030, all individuals could be part of a carbon emission trading scheme, allowing people who do not travel much or burn much energy to trade quotas with those who are energy profligate. By 2050, little energy will be needed to heat or cool buildings.
Aviation
Over the next decade the aviation industry will come under intense pressure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. It can achieve big cuts by developing lighter planes that burn less carbon-intensive fuels, and could also return to more efficient turboprop planes for short flights. Governments could demand speed limits on planes, ban larger ones from short haul flights and allow them to take off only if they are at least half full.
The Tyndall authors expect biofuels increasingly to be grown for aviation over the next 25 years and suggest that the government could increase the tax on flying. In addition, a moratorium could be put on runway building, aviation could be brought into an emission trading scheme and the industry could be given a cap on emissions.
By 2050, the authors say, domestic aviation will have greatly decreased as people shift to high-speed trains, and a combination of greater fuel efficiency and restraint encouraged by personal emission trading could reduce greenhouse gases from air travel to about one third of today's level.Interactive guidesGlobal warmingThe slowdown of the Gulf StreamSpecial reportsSpecial report: climate changeSpecial report: G8Useful linksIPCCUN framework convention on climate change