HyWays Suggests Revised Hydrogen Vehicle Targets for European Union

Stakeholders in the European Union’s HyWays project suggest that the 5% target for hydrogen vehicle penetration in European markets is too optimistic, with 3% of the passenger car market being more likely in a ‘best case scenario’. The project, co-funded by research institutes, industry and by the European Commission (EC) under the 6th Framework Programme [contract N° 502596], aims at providing a roadmap for the development of hydrogen in the European Union.
Members of the project have released an interim report last month, marking the completion of 18 month Phase 1 of the project, which specifically analysed France, Germany, Greece, Italy, The Netherlands, and Norway. Phase 2 will analyse Finland, Poland, Spain, and United Kingdom over the coming 18 months.

Though the consortium used the “European Energy and Transport: Trends to 2030” (Energy Trends 2030) as a baseline scenario, oil price projections for the scenario were considered too low at $US50 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE) for 2050. Decreasing reserves of oil relative to natural gas however lead to the expectation that rises in natural gas prices are expected to be lower than those for oil, with a $1 price rise in oil between now and 2050 expected to be met with a $0.50 rise in the price of natural gas on a BOE basis.

The report confirms that the most viable market for hydrogen vehicles is likely to be passenger vehicles though fuel cells are unlikely to become dominant technology in transport until 2030-2040. In addition to passenger cars penetration curves were also applied for commercial light duty vehicles and public transport buses.

Long haulage heavy duty trucks and coaches have not been considered for relevant hydrogen penetration rates due to the requirements for extremely long ranges and the fact that the internal combustion engines of these vehicles are usually operated in a higher efficiency range – a view shared by NGV industry experts.

The study considered a range of scenarios for hydrogen production, with methane reformation featuring in most scenarios, some on an on-site basis and others on a bulk production and delivery by tanker basis. Until 2030, hydrogen production from fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is expected to be the most important production source in Europe, with renewable hydrogen slowly being phased in.