The climate link to big fires :: ABC Canberra

The climate link to big fires ::

BUT could it be due to El Nino, ENSO, IPO, SAM, IOD ? This story is just another excuse to blame manmade GHGs. The cumulative effects of the natural variations far outway the anthropogenic inputs, but the IPCC won't tell us this - of course


With recent big fires, there has been much talk about a possible link between climate change and the extent and magnitude of bushfires. Has the drought been to blame for a build up of fuels? Would big fires be brought under control more readily with natural and more regular rainfall?
Dr Nicholls is Professorial Fellow for the School of Geography and Environmental Science at Monash University, Lead Author of the Chapter "Understanding and attributing climate change" of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment and a former member of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre."The world has warmed," warned Dr Nicholls, "and has warmed considerably in the last 150 years and particularly in the last 50 years."Graphs illustrated the observed temperature, a line which curved sharply upwards towards the end of the last century, a blue band represented the climate model as calculated when only natural forces, such as changes in solar conditions, volcanic and cloud activity were introduced. This band stayed fairly level over the timeline. Finally, a red band was shown as the predicted model when anthropogenic forces were introduced, which rose in tandem with the actual observed temperature data.
There is a strong relationship between climate variations and area burnt in fires
What does this mean for fires? Preliminary research on Tasmania Dr Nicholls has conducted in co-operation with the Bureau of Meteorology as a part of the Bushfire CRC shows the relationship between rainfall and temperature variations and the area of land burnt in a fire. This data showed that since 1950 there has been a general trend for a reduction in rainfall to lead to larger areas being burnt if you have a dry October to March and less area burnt during times of year when the rainfall has been increasing. "There is a strong relationship between climate variations and area burnt in fires." Data presented also shows a trend in Victoria that the warmer the year, the greater the area burnt. Dr Nicholls has also concluded from his research that dryer conditions earlier in the year correlates to and earlier start to the bushfire season."In the last 10 years the situation has changed," he said, "because temperatures have increased, it appears to mean that fires are starting earlier no matter what the rainfall is."So what does this mean for the future? According to the IPCC predictions, Australia is expected to experience a slight rise in temperature over the next twenty to twenty five years from two degrees up to four and a half degrees dependant of the levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The IPCC also predicts that changes in precipitation levels will result in an increase in the area of damage, and warmer temperatures will mean a much longer bushfire season as indicated by the Tasmanian and Victorian data.In conclusion, Dr Nicholls stated, "Every drought seems to be hotter than the last drought and that has to have implications to fuel management and fuel reduction, as well as to fire response"
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