Monday, April 09, 2007

A CRITIQUE OF THE IPCC'S SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS


On page 3 we are told :


  • Based on satellite observations since the early 1980s, there is high confidence that there has been a trend in many regions towards earlier greening of vegetation ..... “.


This statement is ambiguous at best ... or misleading at worst. We have only had high resolution satellite imagery capable of making these observation since the early 1980s. Prior to this we did not have the tools to make these measurements. So if the greening was noticed then, we cannot say what was happening earlier .


In the next para we are told there will be:


  • ... increases in algal and zoo-plankton abundance in high latitude and high altitude lakes.


Surely this is a good thing as these organisms are a very effective means of absorbing atmospheric CO2


The report give a lot of attention to the possibility of the ocean becoming more acidic . They then note these effects “... are as yet to be documented.”


Acidification of the ocean should also be more correctly called Ph lowering or alkalinity lowering as the ocean is naturally alkaline.


We are told that by mid-century river runoffs will increase by 10-40%. One consequence of this but not mentioned in the report is the fact that with a higher rate of runoff , there will be increased soil erosion and hence heavier sediment loads in the river systems. Surely this will counter the tendency for sea level rises since deltas at river mouths will be building up due to deposition of the new sediment load.


Global warming it is said on page 8:


  • will have predominantly negative consequences for biodiversity


Recent evidence shows that increases temperatures in tropical zones are responsible for higher metabolic rates, more rapid evolution and hence increased biodiversity. Rain forests are well known as the most bio-diverse region on the planet. Regions amenable to increased biodiversity will expand.


The threat to Australia's Great Barrier Reef ignores the probability that with increased warming the reef will extend to the south where temperature are currently too cool for coral.,


Glacier melt in alpine regions will also result in a heavier sediment load, again resulting in the build up of shorelines in coastal regions..

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