MORE SUBTLE UNDERSTATEMENT

Climate Change Will Kill Billions, Scientist Says (Update1)


Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Climate change will kill billions of people this century as the Earth warms, passing into a ``fever'' phase from which it may take 100,000 years to recover, James Lovelock, the scientist who propounded the ``Gaia'' theory, said.
Temperatures in temperate regions such as Europe and the U.S., will soar by 8 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit) this century, and those in the tropics will rise by 5 degrees as a result of man-made emissions, Lovelock wrote in today's Independent newspaper.
``We have given Gaia a fever and soon her condition will worsen to a state like a coma,'' Lovelock wrote. ``She has been there before and recovered, but it took more than 100,000 years. We are responsible and will suffer the consequences.''
Lovelock's Gaia theory, advanced in the 1970s, sees the Earth behaving like a self-sustaining organism, with a control system that keeps the environment fit for life. By trying to take over regulation of the planet's climate, humans have condemned themselves to ``the worst kind of slavery,'' and will soon find it impossible to keep the Earth fit for life, Lovelock said.
``Much of the tropical land mass will become scrub and desert, and will no longer serve for regulation; this adds to the 40 percent of the Earth's surface we have depleted to feed ourselves,'' he said. ``Before this century is over billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable.''
2005 Temperatures
Last year was the second warmest ever globally, according to preliminary figures released on Dec. 15 by the U.K. Met Office, a climate-monitoring government body. Each year in the past decade, except for 1996, is among the ten warmest ever, according to the Met Office's Hadley Center.
Global sea- and land-surface temperatures from January to November averaged 0.48 degrees centigrade more than the global mean temperature for the three decades from 1961 to 1990, the Hadley Center said. It didn't provide the base temperature, and said that finalized figures will be available in February.
Global warming caused by human action is the root of rising sea levels, melting ice caps and more erratic weather patterns, scientists said at a conference last year in Exeter, southwest England, where the Met Office is based.
Not all scientists and politicians support the theory that the planet's climate patterns are changing as a result of human activity. The administration of U.S. President George W. Bush has said there's no proof that global warming is causing a change in the weather.
`Hell of Climate'
Lovelock said that, with the U.S. and emerging economies such as China and India unlikely to cut back emissions of so- called greenhouse gases that trap the sun's heat, ``the worst will happen and survivors will have to adapt to a hell of a climate.''
The Kyoto Protocol, a treaty binding 35 nations and the European Union to cut their emissions of greenhouse gases in an effort to combat global warming, came into force last February. The EU has adopted a target of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius more than ``pre-industrial levels.''
Under the protocol, developed countries agreed to cut by about 5 percent from 1990 levels emissions of six gases that scientists say cause the Earth's climate to warm. The U.S., the world's largest producer of the gases, hasn't accepted the pact, and developing nations including China and India aren't set targets.
Bush in March 2001 rejected the treaty, saying it would be too expensive for U.S. companies, and that nations such as China and India should also have emissions targets. The White House has said signing up to Kyoto could cost the U.S. more than 5 million jobs. Under Kyoto's provisions, the U.S. would have to cut emissions by 7 percent from 1990 levels.
Bush in 2002 began the so-called ``Clear Skies'' initiative, a voluntary plan to reduce pollutants linking emissions to economic growth.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net.