Opinion divided over ABARE greenhouse emissions report

Reporter: Jennifer Macey
TONY EASTLEY: The Federal Government says a new report by the nation's official forecaster bolsters its arguments for the initiatives proposed by the Asia Pacific Partnership, but green groups say the same report backs their claims that governments are not doing enough.The report by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) says greenhouse gas emissions will almost triple by 2050.The Federal Government says the measures undertaken by the Asia Pacific pact, which wrapped up talks in Sydney yesterday, will see greenhouse gases reduced by 20 per cent.However green groups say the figure is misleading because by that date global emissions will have more than doubled, even if all six nations in the Asia Pacific pact stick to their promises made this week.Jennifer Macey reports.JENNIFER MACEY: The Prime Minister John Howard referred to the new ABARE report during his address to the Asia Pacific climate conference yesterday. JOHN HOWARD: The adoption and diffusion of cleaner technologies does have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in partner countries by almost 20 per cent below what would otherwise be the case by the year 2050.The spillover to the rest of the world could lead to a global cumulative reduction in emissions of some 13 per cent below what would otherwise occur over the same period.JENNIFER MACEY: The 20 percent cut Mr Howard refers to is calculated from a projected level of gases if nothing is done to curb greenhouse pollution.The ABARE report actually says that by 2050 gases will more than double in the atmosphere even with the preventative measures taken under the Asia Pacific Partnership.The forecaster's Chief Executive officer is Dr Brian Fischer. BRIAN FISCHER: Emissions continue to grow because we have enormous growth in income, and therefore we've got enormous growth - in the world, I'm talking about the world now - and therefore we've got enormous growth in demand for energy services. Now, the only way you can stop emissions from growing is to have all of your new energy coming from non-fossil fuel sources. And practically speaking, what we're saying is that the demand for energy services is running far, far ahead of what you can provide with the best will in the world from these non-fossil fuel services.JENNIFER MACEY: The environment group WWF Australia says the Prime Minister has used the official forecaster's report to mislead the public.Greg Bourne is the group's Chief Executive. GREG BOURNE: It is the most misleading statement I've heard in the whole of my business career. I just could not believe this is what he said. When you actually look at the ABARE report, you see that it's a 20 per cent cut from business as usual, but based on the increase over what we need, it's a two-and-a-half fold increase in world emissions.This is, carries the implication of runaway climate change, and temperatures stabilising somewhere above four degrees. JENNIFER MACEY: Just over two years ago the Federal Government's now disbanded Greenhouse Office said a two degree increase in temperatures as a result of more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would lead to rises in sea levels, more severe storms and more frequent droughts in Australia.According to the levels projected in the ABARE report global temperatures would actually increase by four degrees Celsius, a scenario many climate scientists say that would be catastrophic.And the head of ABARE, Dr Fischer, says his estimates are based on assumptions of clean energy technologies that have still not yet been developed.BRIAN FISCHER: I used to be very uncomfortable about doing 50-year and 100-year forecasts. I'm now much more comfortable about doing that, frankly, because - I wouldn't want to be cynical about this, but it's possibly the case that you won't be able to test whether I got that right.TONY EASTLEY: Dr Brian Fischer, the head of the Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, ABARE. That report by Jennifer Macey.