Don�t let the nuke hype cloud the big story






One of the important aspects of the Indo-US nuclear deal is the emphasis it has placed on the development of nuclear energy to generate power in India. Many commentators have rightly pointed out that nuclear energy has the potential to meet India’s energy requirements over the long term: indeed, after 2050, if all goes well, India could generate so much power from nuclear energy that its dependence on other sources would significantly come down.
Unfortunately, this enthusiasm for nuclear energy has led to some degree of confusion with regard to its actual place in our power generation scenario over the next 25 years. The Kirit Parikh report has set out the issues quite starkly: India needs sustained growth of 8% per annum up to 2031 to pull increasing numbers of its people out of the poverty trap.


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To achieve this, its primary energy supply has to increase 3-4 times, and electricity supply has to increase nearly seven times, i.e., power generation would have to increase from 123,015 mw today to 778,095 mw in 2031-32. The report again correctly states that to achieve these ambitious targets, India would need to pursue available fuel options and energy forms, both conventional and non-conventional.

Let us take a look at the global scene. In 2003, nuclear power plants provided 16% of world electricity production. Countries with a share of nuclear power of over 40% of total power produced are: France 78%; Belgium 55%; Sweden 50%; and Republic of Korea 40%. In the US, nuclear power stations’ share in total electricity production is 20%. US has 103 commercial nuclear power stations at 64 sites in 31 states. The average age of these stations is 24 years; since 1980, no new nuclear power station has been set up in the US.


• India’s energy security over the next 25 years is crucially linked to import of gas
• Nuclear energy will be technologically and commercially viable only after 2030
• Indo-US deal will allow us partnerships in developing frontier nuke technology

Globally, in 2030, fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) will dominate the energy mix to the extent of 72%. Their share is expected to come down slightly in 2050, to 55%, with an anticipated increase in the share of biomass and other renewables (35%). The share of nuclear energy, 5.2% in 2030, will increase to only 11% in 2050.

Today, India’s energy mix is: coal 50%; oil and gas 45%; hydropower 2%, and nuclear 1.5%. In 2022, fossil fuels will continue to dominate India’s energy mix to the extent of 75%, with hydro-power providing 14%, and nuclear power 6.5%. Even robust votaries of nuclear power have noted that, most optimistically, nuclear energy will provide only 8.8% in India’s energy mix in 2032, as against 76% for fossil fuels, and 12% for hydropower. In 2052, when nuclear energy is likely to be 16.4% of our energy mix, coal is expected to be 40%; hydrocarbons 35%, and hydropower 5.1%. (Srinivasan et al, EPW, Dec. 3, 2005.)

It is important to note that the significant increase in the share of nuclear power in our energy mix from 2032 to 2052 is premised on the successful implementation of the three-stage nuclear power programme of the Atomic Energy Commission. First conceived in 1958, so far only the first stage has been completed, with the second stage (involving the development of fast breeder reactors ) having commenced in October last year. Thus, over the next 25 years, India’s energy scene will continue to be dominated by fossil fuels, with indigenous coal, imported coal and imported gas principally competing with each other to provide fuel for our electricity projects. However, these three fuels are fraught with difficulties. The projected growth requirement of domestic coal supply over the next seven years is 7.5% per annum, against the actual growth of only 3.2% over the last seven years.

Imported coal, primarily from Australia and South Africa, is expensive, with prices going up in tandem with world oil and gas prices. Again, the huge demand for imported coal would require a significant augmentation of our port and railway facilities, as also the incorporation of special measures to control pollution.

In this background, imported gas, both as LNG and as piped gas, holds considerable promise. India’s energy security over the next 25 years is critically linked to the import of LNG from our gas-rich neighbours and completion of transnational pipeline projects from Turkmenistan and Iran. LNG will meet the power needs of peninsular India, while the transnational pipelines will provide gas for our power projects in north and north-western India.

The successful implementation of these projects is crucially dependent on the price of gas at our border. The outer limit in this respect would be set by the price of indigenous and imported coal at the project site. It is true that the international price of gas has been steadily rising along with higher oil prices as also on account of significant increases in international demand.

Hence, given the substantial variables in pricing LNG and no accepted international formulae to determine the price of piped gas, our negotiations with our neighbours will almost certainly be prolonged and difficult. We will also have to accept that the days of cheap gas are over.

What then is the significance of the recent nuclear agreement? Its importance lies in the fact that India would partner the principal nuclear energy producing countries in the development of a frontier technology to obtain renewable energy on long-term basis. Nuclear power technology will become technologically and commercially viable only after 2030. During this period, we will have to grapple with complex issues pertaining to: availability of raw materials of the desired quality, quantity and price; technologies relating to reactors and ancillary equipment; and safety and waste-disposal issues. For the next 25 years, at least, fossil fuels will dominate our energy needs.

We will have to ensure that our energy security interests are fully safeguarded by boosting domestic resources and engaging robustly in obtaining assets abroad, so that we can achieve the projected growth rates to pull millions out of poverty.

The writer is additional secretary, ministry of petroleum & natural gas. These are his personal views