TheStar.com - Nuclear plan prompts questions

The province wouldn't need to build new nuclear reactors if the Dalton McGuinty government had accepted the Ontario Power Authority's advice on using natural gas generation, some energy experts argue.
In a December report, the power authority recommended that Ontario's electricity-supply mix in 2025 include 15,000 megawatts of nuclear and 11,000 megawatts of natural gas and co-generation projects, all under the assumption that 3,150 megawatts worth of conservation could be achieved.
Energy Minister Dwight Duncan said on Tuesday that he was doubling the electricity-conservation target to 6,300 megawatts and lowering nuclear capacity to 14,000 megawatts, of which 1,000 megawatts would still have to come from new reactors. But the government raised some eyebrows when it also said it was lowering the natural gas and co-generation target by 1,600 megawatts to 9,400 megawatts.
Mark Winfield, director of environmental governance with the Pembina Institute, an energy think tank, said the decision makes no sense.
"One has to wonder," he said. "Are they clearly going out of their way to create a case for a new-build facility when they don't need to? I don't know what other explanation there is."
If the government had stuck with the original recommendation of the Ontario Power Authority, or OPA, on natural gas, Ontario would need only to refurbish old reactors and could avoid the cost and risk of building new ones, he said.
Jack Gibbons, chair of the Ontario Clean Air Alliance, said the explanation was simple: "The government is very, very pro-nuclear."
Gibbons has long argued that natural gas plants, used in combination with intermittent renewable supply such as wind, offer an effective way to reduce dependence on nuclear power. The potential of using natural gas for combined heat and power for industrial co-generation projects also runs into the thousands of megawatts, he argues.
But Rick Jennings, assistant deputy minister of energy supply, said doubling the conservation target meant lowering both nuclear and natural gas targets.
"If you had a certain supply mix and you're taking 3,000 megawatts out because you're conserving more, the way you would reduce supply is not to reduce just peak or base load, but to reduce it by a mix of both."
Natural gas and coal power are typically associated with peak load because the plants can be fired up relatively quickly as spikes in demand require. Nuclear power and run-of-the-river hydro, on the other hand, are considered base-load power because they run 24 hours a day and are difficult to power up or down.
Jennings, citing the volatility of natural gas prices, said it was decided that the increased conservation targets would help the province to reduce its peak loads to a point where the natural gas target recommended by the power authority could be lowered by about 15 per cent.
Duncan emphasized on Tuesday that the plan was flexible.
"This thing is a moving target ... these things will evolve and change," he said.
"Will there be adjustments over the life of the plan? Absolutely."
The Canadian Gas Association didn't appear disturbed by the change. Bryan Gormley, director of policy and economics at the association, said natural gas is expected to play a major role in reaching the province's aggressive conservation targets.
"When you look at the government's plan, they agree with the OPA's determination that natural gas is key for peak demand and high-efficiency applications," said Gormley. "I think it does a good job of recognizing that there's the right fuel for the right application."
The minister, in his directive to the power authority, highlighted "fuel switching" and "small scale natural gas fired co-generation" as examples of conservation efforts that should rely on natural gas. This would includes helping more homeowners switch to natural gas-based ovens, heating systems and even fuel cells (for providing heat and power) over time to wean them off the power grid.
Gormley added, however, that the government's plan to more than double renewable power, including wind and solar, may require more natural gas backup generation on cloudy days and when the wind isn't blowing.
"I wouldn't be surprised to see it play a larger role there."
But Winfield pointed out that the province doesn't have the same flexibility with nuclear, and that deciding later to increase natural gas doesn't address the central issue.
"Nuclear involves the largest commitment," he said. "Once you're committed to that path, you're stuck. You can't undo it."
Additional articles by Tyler Hamilton