Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Canberra, take note: climate change is what terrifies us -

THIS year's Lowy Institute poll reveals Australian concern over global warming to be the big "sleeper" issue of national affairs, a problem that worries Australians more than Islamic fundamentalism.
Australian public convictions on climate change have crept up on our political leaders and have now overtaken them. The political party that can best respond will harness a powerful force.
As the institute's executive director, Allan Gyngell, observes, "this has become mainstream; it's no longer just an issue for Greens and people dressed up in koala suits".
The annual Lowy Institute poll exposes three clear Australian conclusions about climate change. There is no ambiguity or hesitation on this issue any longer, with the "don't know" responses down to an unusually low 1 per cent.
First, this is a very big issue: 68 per cent of respondents rate it as a "critical threat" to Australia's vital interests over the next 10 years.
This puts it in the top three perceived threats to the country, with international terrorism at 73 per cent and the danger of hostile nations acquiring nuclear weapons at 70 per cent, and ahead of Islamic fundamentalism, at 60 per cent, and competition from low-wage countries at 34 per cent.
Second, doubt about whether or not global warming is "real" has been virtually eliminated in the public mind. Only 7 per cent of respondents want to wait "until we are sure" before taking action to deal with the problem, even if that action entails costs.
The third and most powerful finding is that Australians are already braced for the idea that there will be costs involved in finding solutions.
Of the three available answers, 68 per cent of respondents chose the most emphatic and urgent option presented by the pollsters: "Global warming is a serious and pressing problem. We should begin taking steps now, even if this involves significant costs."
This does not tell us if Australians are prepared to make personal sacrifices. It does not tell us if we would accept a carbon tax and, therefore, more expensive power generation.
It does not tell us if, conversely, we will accept costs only if someone else pays them.
What the poll does tell us, as Gyngell says, is that "people have moved beyond the rhetorical concern and understand that addressing this will involve a cost".
This is new information in the evolving Australian grasp of the issue. It puts public opinion ahead of Howard Government policy, which has only just conceded that the phenomenon is real and has yet to admit that the solution may involve any cost.
Otherwise, the Lowy poll confirms that the pre-existing paradox of Australian attitudes to the world remains in place.
That is, Australians are very suspicious of our only strategically significant near neighbour, Indonesia, yet we are also very wary of the country which we would expect to help us in the event of any conflict, the United States. We trust neither our neighbour nor our purported saviour.
But we have decided we know one thing for sure: the big new threat is global warming and we are prepared to pay a price to deal with it.

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