Coal, gas and renewables will have to fill shortfall

ELECTRICITY demand will more than double by 2050 but even if 25 nuclear power stations are built by then, nuclear energy will still only account for about one-third of total national generating capacity.
That means coal, natural gas and renewables will still be in the mix to supply consumer demand for most of this century.
The electricity sector is Australia's biggest contributor to greenhouse-gas emissions. It is also one of the country's largest industries, with about 45,000 megawatts of installed capacity and controlling assets valued at $98billion.
The Energy Supply Association, which represents most electricity producers, said the Switkowski figures roughly matched its own forecasts.
"Nothing in this report suggests that deep cuts to carbon emissions in this country will be achieved without substantial government subsidies," association chief executive Brad Page said.
The Switkowski review nominates 25 nuclear generators between 2020 and 2050 as the cheapest way to introducing cost-effective nuclear power into Australia.
But the review also says that in 2030, high greenhouse-emission black coal will account for 51.4 per cent of Australia's electricity generation, with brown coal adding a further 17.4 per cent.
Natural gas will have risen to 21.8 per cent, while renewables such as hydro, wind, biomass and biogas will account for less than 8.5 per cent of the total.
The review notes that carbon capture andstorage (CCS), currently the preferred method of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions from future coal-fired power stations, "remains to be proven except in highly specific applications".
"Uncertainties remain about the cost ofCCS and its reliability and security overthe long term," the review says. "CCS isbest applied to new plants as it isless effective when retrofitted to existing plants."
Mr Page said the review confirmed that renewables, particularly windpower, were not likely to make a big contribution to the electricity-generation sector for the foreseeable future.
The review's forecast of long-run nuclear generation costs for Australia - at $40 to $65 a megawatt hour - were in line with ESAA forecasts and were roughly equivalent to the currently estimated costs of applying clean-coal technology.
But the review implies that nuclear energy will remain a commercially unattractive option for Australia's generation sector.
"Beyond the costs of production, other features of nuclear power may make it relatively unattractive for Australian investors," it says.
The review noted that a single 1000-1600MW plant would be a sizeable investment for existing private generating companies in the Australian market.
It says private investors usually have less than 4000MW of total generating capacity spread over several units.
"Private generators ... have typically shown a preference for faster lead times and more flexible technologies," it states.