Big cuts to emissions would slash GDP [18jul06]

BIG cuts to Australia's greenhouse gas emissions would slash the nation's gross domestic product and require massive reductions in industrial production, a report suggests.The scenario is among six options for cutting global emissions explored in a report by the Federal Government's commodities analyst, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
One model would see Australia moving ahead of other nations, reducing its emissions to 50 per cent below its 1990 levels by 2050. But the bureau's report said that would shave 10.7 per cent off Australia's GDP by 2050.
Output from key energy-intensive industries including oil and gas were projected to fall between 50 and 75 per cent, while output from the agricultural sector would drop 44 per cent compared with what would otherwise have occurred by 2050.
All the scenarios presented in the report are built on an assumption that global greenhouse gas emissions will increase by about 144 per cent between 2001 and 2050.
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The models aim to stabilise atmospheric carbon dioxide levels at 575 parts per million by the year 2100.
That would mean achieving a 40 per cent cut to the global projections for greenhouse emissions by 2050 - a task ABARE acknowledged was a big ask.